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One of the most thrilling Brownlow nights in recent memory is reaching a climax, and Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps is the overwhelming favourite to take home his second gong.
The 29-year-old notched a staggering 30 votes by Round 16 to lead second place by eight votes and emerge as the likely winner — he would be the 17th player to win multiple Brownlow Medals.
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Cripps needed just six more votes across the final eight games to equal the record votes total, or seven to own it outright.
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Collingwood’s Nick Daicos and Sydney’s Chad Warner emerged as the closest contenders after Cripps, while suspended Swan Isaac Heeney polled well.
Daicos, in his third AFL season, is in search of his first Brownlow after coming so close in 2023 but falling short due to a late-season injury, but it appears Cripps — at his best in his 11th season — is set to win a second after his 2022 triumph.
Sydney superstar Heeney, who lifted his game to new heights in 2024 while powering the Swans back into the Grand Final, is hoping his midseason striking suspension which made him ineligible for the Brownlow does not cost him the honour.
However, after sitting atop the leaderboard after Round 10 with 21 votes — a Brownlow Medal record — a nightmare scenario is in play.
Heeney achieved double-digit votes for the first time in his career and did so early in the night, but he lost his lead to Cripps after Round 12.
GWS’ Tom Green and Melbourne’s Christian Petracca were also among the strong early vote-getters, both sitting in the top four after Round 9, but started fading away as expected.
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With Daicos and Cripps both having finished the season brilliantly, the race could go down to the wire, with the potential for the first on-the-night tie since 2003 when Mark Ricciuto, Nathan Buckley and Adam Goodes finished level. (The tie in 2012 between Sam Mitchell and Trent Cotchin was retroactive, with Essendon’s Jobe Watson stripped of his medal due to the club’s drugs saga.)
Daicos and Cripps could also join tied pairs like Michael Voss and James Hird (1996), Tony Lockett and John Platten (1987), Robert DiPierdomenico and Greg Williams (1986), and seven other groups. In total there have been 12 ties for the Brownlow.
But lurking behind the pair is Brisbane’s Lachie Neale, last year’s surprise winner who has again led his Lions into a Grand Final and could become the first man in the AFL era to win three Brownlows.
Neale would enter football immortality if he claims another Charlie, joining Fitzroy’s Haydn Bunton (1931, 1932, 1935), St Kilda and Richmond’s Ian Stewart (1965, 1966, 1971), Essendon’s Dick Reynolds (1934, 1937, 1938) and South Melbourne’s Bob Skilton (1959, 1963, 1968) in the three-time winners club.
On the outside of the race is arguably the best active player without a Brownlow, the Western Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli, who was named captain of the All-Australian team and claimed the player-voted MVP for the third time in four seasons.
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Perhaps thankfully for Heeney, after a ridiculously good start to the season he is expected to fade away. If he polls the most votes he will join the ignominious club of ineligible winners, currently made up of Corey McKernan (1996), Chris Grant (1997) and Jobe Watson (2012).
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The likes of Patrick Dangerfield (33 votes in 2017, famously failing to poll when he starred late in the year while known to be ineligible), Sam Mitchell (30 votes in 2011) and Nat Fyfe (25 votes in 2014) have all finished second in recent years while ineligible.
Other dark horses for the count include Heeney’s Swans teammates Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, Fremantle’s Caleb Serong, Port Adelaide’s Zak Butters and Gold Coast’s Noah Anderson.
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